Measuring Residential Real Estate Liquidity

There are many factors, other than price alone, that may affect the liquidity of real estate. This study develops a liquidity measure based on the Cox proportional hazard technique, a statistical model widely used in the epidemiologic and social sciences. The odds ratio, along with an estimate of market value for a home, are used to construct a liquidity measure. This measure can extract from the data a rich statistical profile of the variables that affect liquidity.     

Predicting Stock Returns Using Financial Statement Information

We examine the profitability of the Ou and Penman (1989a) Pr trading strategy and the Holthausen and Larcker (1992) Prob trading strategy over the period 1980–1992 in the UK. This is a test of whether an investor can earn abnormal returns by exploiting fundamental accounting data. We employ alternative abnormal return metrics and research designs to control for risk. Using a UK dataset offers an independent test because the UK differs from the US in its formal and informal financial reporting environment, its structure of share ownership, and the behaviour of its economy over the study period. We find consistent evidence that an investor could have used a summary measure of financial statement information to predict future abnormal returns by indirectly predicting one-year-ahead earnings changes, but only weak and inconsistent evidence that an investor could have used a summary measure of financial statement information to predict one-year-ahead stock returns directly. We offer some thoughts on the reasons for these different results.     

The allocative efficiency and conservation potential of water laws encouraging investments in on-farm irrigation technology

Agricultural water conservation statutes are emerging in the West encouraging private irrigators to improve on‐farm irrigation efficiency as a basinwide conservation measure. We investigate whether private improvements promote the economic efficiency and conservation of water use basinwide under a wide variety of hydroeconomic circumstances. The standard of efficiency is how an irrigation district manager should optimally invest in improving the irrigation efficiencies of individual farms located along a stream while internalizing intrabasin allocative externalities of these investments. The results indicate that the popular Oregon legislative model may be the least effective in conserving water and promoting economically efficient water allocation.     

Classificatory income smoothing: The impact of a change in regime of reporting financial performance

Financial Reporting Standard No. 3 (FRS3) regulated the reporting of financial performance by UK firms from 1993 until the adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards in 2005. FRS3 outlawed extraordinary items, but allowed a clearer distinction between recurring and transitory income by giving firms discretion over the classifications of unusual (i.e. exceptional) items and the option to disclose alternative EPS. Through these provisions FRS3 increased the scope for classificatory choices as a means to highlight persistent profitability. We examine the impact of FRS3 on classificatory smoothing by UK firms and document a significant rise in this practice post-FRS3. We find that this increase is due mainly to deviations of net income from expected earnings inducing a significantly higher level of classificatory smoothing post-FRS3. Additional analysis shows that earnings are substantially more persistent at the pre-exceptional level post-FRS3. Overall, our results suggest greater use of classificatory choices to highlight sustainable profitability after the change in performance reporting regime.